[{"id":"spend-vs-poverty","tab_label":"DPWH vs poverty","headline":"Eleven years, five trillion in roads. Did poverty improve?","tagline":"DPWH spend per capita against poverty incidence. 81 provinces and Metro Manila. 2014 to 2024. Hit play, or use the arrow keys.","why":"DPWH is the single largest PhilGEPS-tracked spend by agency. If infrastructure money tracks poverty reduction at all, this is where to look first. The chart shows you whether provinces with higher per-capita road spend also moved lower on the poverty axis.","source_url":"https://github.com/csiiiv/philgeps-awards-dashboard","x":"dpwh_spend_per_capita","y":"poverty","size":"population_2020","panel_years":[2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024],"default_year":2018,"default_log_x":true,"awards_caveat":"Reads as contract awards, not cash spent. PhilGEPS publishes the value of contracts awarded, which can sit unexecuted for years; actual disbursement by province is not published anywhere public. Treat this as money committed, not money proven spent or built.","finding":{"available":true,"year":2018,"n":81,"spearman":0.124,"p_value":0.2675,"both_above_median":24,"sentence":"In 2018, across 81 of 82 areas with data, the rank correlation between DPWH spend per capita and poverty incidence is rho = +0.12 (p = 0.268), showing no clear positive link. 24 of 81 areas sat above the median on both axes.","caveat":"Correlation, not causation. Spend here is PhilGEPS contract awards (money committed), not verified disbursement or built outcomes."}},{"id":"all-spend-vs-poverty","tab_label":"All gov vs poverty","headline":"All government spending. Does it reach the poor?","tagline":"Every province-attributable PhilGEPS contract per capita against poverty incidence. 81 provinces and Metro Manila, 2014 to 2024. Scrub the years.","why":"DPWH alone is too narrow. This widens the lens to every PhilGEPS contract any agency awarded that could be tied to a province via area_of_delivery. About 20 percent of total award value carries no usable province tag and is excluded; what remains is the broadest per-capita procurement picture available.","source_url":"https://github.com/csiiiv/philgeps-awards-dashboard","x":"all_spend_per_capita","y":"poverty","size":"population_2020","panel_years":[2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024],"default_year":2018,"default_log_x":true,"awards_caveat":"Reads as contract awards, not cash spent. PhilGEPS publishes the value of contracts awarded, which can sit unexecuted for years; actual disbursement by province is not published anywhere public. Treat this as money committed, not money proven spent or built.","finding":{"available":true,"year":2018,"n":82,"spearman":-0.068,"p_value":0.5476,"both_above_median":23,"sentence":"In 2018, across 82 areas, the rank correlation between all-government spend per capita and poverty incidence is rho = -0.07 (p = 0.548), showing no clear negative link. 23 of 82 areas sat above the median on both axes.","caveat":"Correlation, not causation. Spend here is PhilGEPS contract awards (money committed), not verified disbursement or built outcomes."}},{"id":"all-spend-vs-gdp","tab_label":"Spend vs GDP","headline":"Does spending follow wealth, or chase poverty?","tagline":"81 provinces and Metro Manila. 2022 to 2024. All government contracts per capita against per-capita GDP.","why":"DPWH-vs-poverty and all-spend-vs-poverty both ask whether money follows poverty. This one asks the opposite: does procurement spend follow wealth? If the cloud tilts upward, procurement money lands where GDP already is. If it tilts downward, it lands where GDP isn't. Both indicators are already shipped, so this preset needed zero new data.","source_url":"https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/PXWeb/pxweb/en/DB/DB__2A__PPA/","x":"all_spend_per_capita","y":"gdp_per_capita","size":"population_2020","panel_years":[2022,2023,2024],"default_year":2023,"default_log_x":true,"awards_caveat":"Reads as contract awards, not cash spent. PhilGEPS publishes the value of contracts awarded, which can sit unexecuted for years; actual disbursement by province is not published anywhere public. Treat this as money committed, not money proven spent or built.","finding":{"available":true,"year":2023,"n":81,"spearman":0.186,"p_value":0.097,"both_above_median":21,"sentence":"In 2023, across 81 of 82 areas with data, the rank correlation between all-government spend per capita and per-capita GDP is rho = +0.19 (p = 0.097), showing no clear positive link. 21 of 81 areas sat above the median on both axes.","caveat":"Correlation, not causation. Spend here is PhilGEPS contract awards (money committed), not verified disbursement or built outcomes."}},{"id":"gdp-vs-poverty","tab_label":"GDP vs poverty","headline":"Wealthier provinces, lower poverty?","tagline":"Per capita GDP (constant 2018 PHP) against poverty incidence. Three years of PSA province data, 2022 to 2024.","why":"GDP per capita is the headline wealth measure. Pairing it with poverty incidence shows whether the two are negatively correlated across provinces in the way most economic theory predicts, and where the outliers sit. PSA only publishes provincial per-capita GDP from 2022 onward, so the panel is short.","source_url":"https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/PXWeb/pxweb/en/DB/DB__2A__PPA/","x":"gdp_per_capita","y":"poverty","size":"population_2020","panel_years":[2022,2023,2024],"default_year":2023,"default_log_x":true,"finding":{"available":true,"year":2023,"n":81,"spearman":-0.525,"p_value":0.0,"both_above_median":13,"sentence":"In 2023, across 81 of 82 areas with data, the rank correlation between per-capita GDP and poverty incidence is rho = -0.53 (p < 0.001), showing a moderate negative link. 13 of 81 areas sat above the median on both axes.","caveat":"Correlation, not causation."}},{"id":"spend-vs-poverty-change","tab_label":"Spend vs poverty change","headline":"More road spending, more poverty reduction?","tagline":"Cumulative DPWH spend per capita over 2014-2023 against the change in poverty incidence from 2018 to 2023. One snapshot, 81 provinces and Metro Manila.","why":"The year-by-year scatter shows no consistent pattern (rho near zero). This panel asks the same question differently: did the provinces that received the most road funding over a decade also see the largest reductions in poverty? Cumulative spend is matched to the 2018-to-2023 poverty change, the longest available window where both indicators overlap. A negative correlation would mean higher cumulative spend associates with larger poverty falls (which is what the headline question implies). A near-zero result means spending and poverty outcomes are effectively independent at the province level.","source_url":"https://github.com/csiiiv/philgeps-awards-dashboard","x":"dpwh_spend_per_capita_cum","y":"poverty_change_pp","size":"population_2020","panel_years":[2023],"default_year":2023,"default_log_x":true,"awards_caveat":"Reads as contract awards, not cash spent. PhilGEPS publishes the value of contracts awarded, which can sit unexecuted for years; actual disbursement by province is not published anywhere public. Treat this as money committed, not money proven spent or built.","caveat_cum":"X axis is cumulative nominal PHP per capita (2014-2023), not real. CPI deflation before 2018 requires extrapolation so nominal is used for transparency. Negative Y means poverty fell; positive means it rose.","finding":{"available":true,"year":2023,"n":82,"spearman":-0.245,"p_value":0.0259,"both_above_median":13,"sentence":"In 2023, across 82 areas, the rank correlation between cumulative DPWH spend per capita (2014-2023) and poverty change (pp) is rho = -0.25 (p = 0.026), showing a weak negative link. 13 of 82 areas sat above the median on both axes.","caveat":"Correlation, not causation. Spend here is PhilGEPS contract awards (money committed), not verified disbursement or built outcomes."}},{"id":"inflation-vs-poverty","tab_label":"Inflation vs poverty","headline":"Where prices rise fastest, who already lives poor?","tagline":"Regional CPI inflation (year-on-year) against poverty incidence. PSA publishes CPI by region, not province, so this story drops from the 82 provincial units used elsewhere to 18 regions. PSA survey years 2021 and 2023.","why":"Inflation is a tax that falls hardest where incomes are lowest, but headline inflation is a national number. PSA's regional CPI lets the question be asked one level down: do the regions with the fastest-rising prices also carry the highest poverty? The upper-right of the chart is the squeeze: high poverty and fast price growth at the same time.","source_url":"https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/PXWeb/pxweb/en/DB/DB__2M__PI__CPI/","x":"region_cpi_yoy_pct","y":"region_poverty","unit_set":"regions","panel_years":[2021,2023],"default_year":2023,"default_log_x":false,"finding":{"available":true,"year":2023,"n":18,"spearman":0.093,"p_value":0.7085,"both_above_median":5,"sentence":"In 2023, across 18 areas, the rank correlation between regional CPI inflation (year-on-year) and regional poverty incidence is rho = +0.09 (p = 0.709), showing no clear positive link. 5 of 18 areas sat above the median on both axes.","caveat":"Correlation, not causation."}}]